29th September 2011 An Optimist's Tour of the Future

Last night I went to another Skeptics in the Pub talk. This talk should have occurred 6 weeks ago, but because of the riots, it was delayed which was good for me as I would have missed it otherwise.

It was a very different talk from the first one I went to on lucid dreaming which was packed full of so much information that my head was reeling afterwards. Who needs drugs when you can get an intellectual high from a talk like that? Whee!

The speaker was Mark Stevenson, and the title "An Optimist's Tour of the Future." It was about changing from looking at the future from a negative point of view to a 'Yes, there is a problem but there are also solutions.' The problem with the doom and gloom is that if we can't see hope, we just give up. What's the point of trying when we're going to fail anyway? Fear is a terrible motivator as it can also paralyse and cause us to give up.

Having a more optimistic view of the future isn't about denying there is a problem, but looking for solutions. Not the cynical 'No, can't solve that, impossible, wont work' but finding a vision and striving for it. There is no way I can express the hope the talk gave to me. The future could be better. It might not be, but that possibility, that glimmer of hope, exists and it's that we need to focus on and make happen.

Look how far we've come.

The amount of change over the last century has been incredible. Here are a few of the things that have been achieved, and are already being achieved.

Life Expectancy

The minimum life expectancy in any country in 1909 was 22 in Bangladesh. Now (2009 figures), the worst is in war torn Afghanistan at double that.

World Population and Food Production

Since 1950, even though the world population has increased from 2.6 billion to 6.9 billion (http://www.npg.org/facts/world_pop_year.htm), the per capita amount of food produced has also increased. There are two and a half times the number of people and we're producing more food per person? Remarkable. So why is there starvation? We've got the food but we're failing on the distribution.

The population is increasing but wont the world become full? The rate of increase of population is slowing and in some countries, the population is decreasing. ;A best guess estimate is that the world population will reach about 10 billion and then start to decrease. There is the capacity to feed that many people.
There's too much carbon dioxide. What can we do? There are materials being produced, and made into something that looks like a brush (http://knowledge.allianz.com/?1580/carbon-capture-artificial-trees-suck-co2-from-air) which captures carbon dioxide from the air and holds on to it. To release this carbon dioxide, just put the brush in water. Ok, so now we have a heap of carbon dioxide and what are we going to do with that? Make it into fuel! (http://www.brightgreencities.com/v1/en/bright-green-book/estados-unidos/conversao-direta-de-dioxide-de-carbon-e-agua-diretamente-em-combustivel/) The aim is carbon neutral fuel stations in 10 years.

Nanotechnology

Nanotechnology is enabling cheaper solutions - reducing the cost of desalination of sea water. How about something that looks like a teabag for less the 0.5 cents to filter water? (http://inhabitat.com/nanotech-tea-bag-purifies-drinking-water-for-less-than-a-penny/)

Agricultural Waste

Plants capture carbon, but then they die and rot and release it again. Turning agricultural waste into charcoal retains the captured carbon. Why would farmers do this? Two reasons.

• The right sort of charcoal can be used to improve the soil and increase yields by up to 50%. (The wrong sort can decrease it.) More carbon in the soil makes it retain more water, and the soil is more open so after a dry period, the rain doesn't just run off.
• It can be turned into a revenue stream, since agricultural waste can be turned into high quality activated carbon. Activated carbon is used in filtration systems.

Grazing Animals

In Australia, there are area where on one side of the fence the grass is overgrazed and the other it is long and dying. The growing part of grass is at the base, so if the base is blocked, then photosynthesis is restricted and the grass doesn't grow. When grass is eaten by animals, some of the roots are lost to the soil, which puts more carbon back into the soil. It's only a small amount, but a small amount repeated over and over leads to a large amount. (I don't know why this rotting doesn't release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere though.)

The usual way to farm is to split animals into smaller groups and have them in different fields, but this isn't how animals behave in nature. What do zebras do? They graze in tight groups for a few days in one area and then move on. Mimicking this by making fields into smaller sections, allowing the animals to graze for a couple of days and then moving them on leads to

• no need for fertilisers to make the grass grow
• increased biodiversity
• no need to buy food since the grass is growing

One farm in Australia using this method produces beef at a quarter of the Australian average leading to hugely increased profits.

Medicine

We have the skills to transplant organs, but there aren't enough donors. How can this be solved? Printing organs!


The video shows Luke, who had his bladder replaced by a new one grown in the lab 10 years ago.

Drugs

Many drugs are rejected because some people have negative reactions to them. What if the genomes of those people could be sequences and the gene causing the problem be isolated so that drug could be used for the ninety-nine people who could benefit from it and the one person who would have an adverse reaction could be given something else? Sequencing someone's genome is getting cheaper and cheaper, and it's claimed it can currently be done for $30.

At the moment about 1 in 5000 drugs are accepted for use so the drug companies have to absorb the cost of the others making the cost of drugs rocket. If  this cost did not have to be absorbed, then the cost of drugs could drop dramatically.

Barriers to Change

What is it that stops this exciting future from becoming a reality, and from problems being solved?

• Waiting for the government to act - governments are slow and if we wait for them to do something it will be too late. They need to see something being done so they can jump on the bandwagon.
• Cynicism. It's seen as cool and wise to be cynical but it blocks progress and is filled with negativity. It's bad for you and bad for the people around you. It's not about finding a way past problems, but just focusing on them. We need to take responsibility to keep our own cynicism in check.

Now what?

A few things

• The future is here already, it's just not evenly distributed. 
• If you can imagine a better future, you can aim for it.
• Keep cynicism in check.
• Never look at limitations as anything you ever comply with. (Cosmic speed limit? Let's wait and see.) 

For further information, the speaker has written a book, An Optimist's Tour of the Future which I haven't read yet. (I ordered it when I got home last night.) If it's half as good as the talk, it's going to be well worth reading. The book is going to be turned into a film, which is definitely something I want to see even though I dislike cinemas intensely.

Mark is also starting a "meeting place for people and organisations who want to make the world better". For further information see http://leagueofpragmaticoptimists.com/.

At the moment, I don't know what I can do except live with an attitude of hope and a vision of better things to come. That's a start, isn't it?

14th September 2011 Life as an RPG

Life as an RPG

A few weeks ago, I saw a t-shirt with the slogan "Achievement Unlocked: Left the House". Around the same time, I started to read posts by +Aristotle Bancale about life as an rpg. I love rpg, whether pen and paper adventures or computer games. I met my husband through a text based rpg, a MUD. Doing quests and levelling up in games is fun. I get it. I can do it. Dealing with real life - no, really not my thing. Was there something in the idea of making life into an rpg that could help me to deal with the anxiety of real life and dealing with new situations?

The Aim

I'd heard about meetings of skeptics in America, and wondered if there was anything similar in my area over here in the UK. I googled and found a local group. I thought that I'd like to go and meet some intelligent, thoughtful people in real life instead of just online. I wasn't particularly interested in the topic, but that didn't seem so important. I wanted to go to this meeting, but I was scared.

Quests and Achievements

So, how was I going to overcome the fear and panic and manage to do this? It started as just joking around about quests. Oh, do I get the 'Leave the house achievement for going to the doctors?' Yay! "How about the touring Europe quest since I've visited seven different countries?" "Let's make it level 2 for seven, with five countries for level 1."

The First Quest

Two weeks ago, a friend was visiting, and we went into Birmingham. Was I going to manage any quests? Could I find my way anywhere? I have no sense of direction at all, but with a lot of standing and looking around and thinking, I managed the "find my way to the bus stop from the market" quest. In the process of working out where I was, I drew a rough map to a shop I wanted to be able to find again. When I was doing this, with the thought of rpgs on my mind, I suddenly realised that I can't find my way in games either but I've developed a way of dealing with that. Why on earth was I not applying this to real life too? DOH!

Mapping the Route

A week later, it was time to try again, but this time going to the location of the meeting. The day before, I looked at google street view and travelled the route as I mapped it out in the same way as I map for games. Was this going to work?

The Second Quest

Saturday arrived, and my husband and I caught the bus into Birmingham. I started off, remembering the map but then I had to check it. One quick glance and I knew where I was going. I found the pub where the meeting would be held quite easily. It felt good! Going back to the bus stop? No problem. Finding the chocolate shop (with amazing 100% dark chocolate)? Easy peasy! The market? It's that way (pointing) but we'll go this way instead. That's four quests right there!

The Main Quest

So, tonight arrived. I was panicking. I wanted to go but I didn't want to go. I wasn't sure whether to just call it off but after dragging my husband into Birmingham on Saturday, it didn't seem fair not to try. I caught the bus to Birmingham. There was a girl and her friend sitting behind me on the bus and she wasn't feeling well. The poor lass was sick which took my mind completely off the meeting. I had some wet wipes and a plastic bag in my bag so was able to help out. I got off the bus with plenty of time to spare and wandered in the direction of the pub. I don't know what I was doing as I just turned right at a random place and walked on. After a minute or two, I thought, "Where on earth am I going?", turned around, went back the way I'd come and continued the right way.

Side Quest

Going home, I was going to need to catch the train. I hadn't practised this. The route to the pub passed the station so I thought I'd buy a ticket home so that if the talk finished late, I wouldn't have to mess around but could go straight to the train. What a silly station Birmingham New Street is. You go in the entrance, can get straight to the platform but there is nowhere to buy a ticket! Fortunately, I found someone to ask and was told I had to go down to the platform to get to the main part of the station. It certainly wasn't obvious where I was supposed to get a ticket but I found it and then went back the way I'd come. Now I knew how I was going to get home. Phew!

The Main Quest Continued

I was about half an hour early when I arrived at the pub. I find pubs rather daunting places so I didn't really want to go in. There were a couple of people outside so even though I really wanted to walk around the block and come back later, I thought I'd just look weird so I plunged in hoping to find the stairs down to where the meeting was. There were no stairs down. Utoh! I did a quick circuit of the room and dived into the ladies!

Now what should I do? I'm definitely in the right place, but which of these people are here for the meeting? No idea. I know, I'll buy a drink. That must be a quest. I know going to a pub was. I'm sure we talked about that one before. At least I'll have done some quests even if I don't stay for the meeting. When I got my drink, I asked where the meeting was. "Upstairs." I'm sure the notice said downstairs, but no matter.

I went upstairs to a room which was filling up rather quickly. I found a spot in the corner to perch and settled in. I was there. I'd done it! Achievement unlocked. Quest completed!

Conclusion

So did thinking of life as an rpg help? Most certainly. It gave me another perspective on how to do things. It enabled me to break down a problem into steps which were worth achieving on their own. It showed me how I could apply skills from gaming in everyday life. It felt empowering and I feel successful. I feel much more confident and able to do the next quest now, whatever that quest may be.

5th September 2011 Little Things Make a Difference: Just a Smile

About 3 weeks ago, as I was walking to a doctor's appointment, I smiled at a lady as I walked past and she smiled back. It brightened up my day and mood. It made a difference to me. It also set me thinking about how differently people interact on a day to day basis in a city compared with a day out in the countryside, and how different those two experiences feel.

When walking in the countryside, almost everyone makes eye contact with the people they meet on the way and exchanges a cheery good morning or afternoon. They may even stop for a chat. I love the sense of connection with others this gives, even though we will probably never meet again. It's good to take time to interact.

On the other hand, in the city, it's often hard to even get a smile from anyone. People rushing all the time with no time for connection, locked in their own private little worlds. Are we really too busy to smile?

I wonder how much less stressed and more connected we would feel if we just took a moment to smile at someone. Would other people would find their day brightened by that smile, or just find it weird? Maybe that person you smiled at lives alone and hasn't spoken to anyone all week. Would people feel threatened by the smile? Could it be a dangerous in some situations?

Link to discussion on G+.